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Frequently Asked Question❓ 

How does inflation affect the broader economy?

Answer at the bottom of the newsletter

America's biggest businesses are thriving.

America's biggest businesses are thriving. Corporate profits surged in the fourth quarter, giving the economy a boost. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, profits increased by 6.7% ($204.7 billion) after declining in the previous quarter. In the department's updated estimates, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 2.4%, down from a 3.1% pace in the prior quarter. The economy grew 2.8% for the full year, not far from the 2.9% growth in 2023. That's right around average for the past couple of decades. Consumer spending drove two-thirds of the growth. While people kept spending and the government boosted its spending, businesses cut back on investments, and fewer goods were exported overseas. Much of this spending was fueled by Americans' incomes starting to catch up to the elevated cost of living.

Layoffs are still low outside of the federal government.

Layoffs are still low outside of the federal government. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 224,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week swings, also dipped by 4,750 to 224,000. Fewer people are claiming unemployment benefits, suggesting layoffs remain low and companies are keeping their workers. The layoffs in Washington are not adding up to much yet, especially since some are being placed on administrative leave or reinstated due to legal pushback. The Health Department plans to cut 10,000 jobs as part of a major reorganization of federal health agencies. According to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., this reduction will bring the workforce down to about 62,000 employees, aiming to save the government approximately $1.8 billion annually. Government work still has little job security, but private employers are holding onto their workers.

Most Americans can't afford to buy a home at today's costs.

Most Americans can't afford to buy a home at today's costs. Rising prices, mortgage rates, and property taxes have made housing much less affordable. The median cost of a new home in America right now is $459,826. According to the National Association of Home Builders, more than 100 million households, 75% of the country, don't earn enough to afford the median home based on conventional mortgage approval standards that assume that combined monthly mortgage, property tax, and insurance costs shouldn't exceed 28% of household income. This analysis also assumed a 6.5% mortgage rate, which is lower than the current average 30-year mortgage rate of 6.7%, according to the Mortgage Banker's Association. Fewer potential buyers could make it more difficult for home-owning generations to cash in on their appreciated home values. Low affordability due to high mortgage, property tax, and insurance costs have stalled the housing market, slowing sales and purchases.

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💡 Answer to the Question:

Inflation isn't just about higher prices at the pump. As prices for raw materials rise, it costs more for corporations to make their products. So, they tend to raise their prices to compensate for those costs. They’ll typically do that until the prices reach some point that consumers aren’t willing to pay that price for that product or service. Then, rising costs start eating into corporate profits and can lead to layoffs or other cutbacks in expanding their business. Less consumer spending, less business spending, and more unemployment are critical signs of a troubled economy.